African Population Database Documentation

A.1. Illustrative example of the stabilityof population estimates

For Israel, population figures were available fora number of years in the Statistical Yearbook of Israel 1991.The following table shows the total population for the six districtsof Israel for four recent years. The last three columns show totalpopulation estimates for 1995 based on average annual growth ratesbetween each of the first four years and 1990. The choice of thegrowth rate obviously has a considerable effect on the resultingestimate. Even allowing for the special nature of Israel's populationdynamics due to the country's immigration policy (the most likelyexplanation for the high 1989-90 rates), the fact that the estimatesare strongly dependent on the available input data becomes clear..

District	Total Population (`000)1				Avg. Annual Perc. Growth Rate			Resulting Estimates for (`000) 1995 based on rate for
	1985	1987	1989	1990	85-90	87-90	89-90	85-90	87-90	89-90
Jerusalem	506	533	556	578	2.66	2.70	3.88	660	662	702
Northern	707	732	763	805	2.60	3.17	5.36	917	943	1052
Haifa	593	601	613	656	2.02	2.92	6.78	726	759	921
Central	889	928	970	1032	2.98	3.54	6.20	1198	1232	1407
Tel Aviv	1015	1027	1044	1095	1.52	2.14	4.77	1181	1218	1390
Southern	511	526	542	574	2.33	2.91	5.74	645	664	765

¹DataSource: Central Bureau of Statistics (1991), Statistical Abstractof Israel 1991, Jerusalem.

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Last modified: 24 February 1997.
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