SOURCES AND TECHNICAL NOTES FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT.

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SOURCES AND TECHNICAL NOTES FOR URBAN SECTION

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SOURCES AND TECHNICAL NOTES FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Data Table 8.1
Size and Growth of Population and Labor Force, 1950 2025

Sources: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Annual Populations (The 1994 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1993); International Labour Office (ILO), 1995 World Labour Report (ILO, Geneva, 1995).

Population refers to the midyear population. Most data are estimates based on population censuses and surveys. All projections are for the medium-case scenario. (See the following discussion.) The average annual population change takes into account the effects of international migration.

Many of the values in Data Tables 8.1 8.3 are estimated using demographic models based on several kinds of demographic parameters: a country s population size, age and sex distribution, fertility and mortality rates by age and sex groups, growth rates of urban and rural populations, and the levels of internal and international migration.

Information collected through recent population censuses and surveys is used to calculate or estimate these parameters, but accuracy varies. The United Nations Population Division compiles and evaluates census and survey results from all countries. These data are adjusted for overenumeration and underenumeration of certain age and sex groups (e.g., infants, female children, and young males), misreporting of age and sex distributions, and changes in definitions, when necessary. These adjustments incorporate data from civil registrations, population surveys, earlier censuses, and, when necessary, population models based on information from socioeconomically similar countries. (Because the figures have been adjusted, they are not strictly comparable to the official statistics compiled by the United Nations Statistical Office and published in the Demographic Yearbook. )

After the figures for population size and age/sex composition have been adjusted, these data are scaled to 1990. Similar estimates are made for each 5-year period between 1950 and 1990.
Historical data are used when deemed accurate, also with adjustments and scaling. However, accurate historical data do not exist for many developing countries. In such cases, the Population Division uses available information and demographic models to estimate the main demographic parameters. Projections are based on estimates of the 1990 base-year population. Age- and sex-specific mortality rates are applied to the base-year population to determine the number of survivors at the end of each 5-year period. Births are projected by applying age-specific fertility rates to the projected female population. Births are distributed by an assumed sex ratio, and the appropriate age- and sex-specific survival rates are applied. Future migration rates are also estimated on an age- and sex-specific basis. Combining future fertility, mortality, and migration rates yields the projected population size, average annual population change, and average annual increment to the population.

Assumptions about future mortality, fertility, and migration rates are made on a country-by-country basis and, when possible, are based on historical trends. Four scenarios of population growth (high, medium, low, and constant) are created by using different assumptions about these rates. For example, the medium- case scenario assumes medium levels of fertility an assumption that may vary among countries. Refer to the source for further details. While projections may be of questionable quality, U.N.
demographic models are based on surveys and censuses with well- understood qualities, which makes these data fairly reliable.

The labor force includes all people who produce economic goods and services. It includes all employed people (employers, the self-employed, salaried employees, wage earners, unpaid family workers, members of producer cooperatives, and members of the armed forces), and the unemployed.

The ILO determines the average annual growth of the labor force by multiplying the activity rates of age/sex groups (the economically active fraction of an age/sex group) by the number of people in those groups. Estimates of activity rates are based on information from national censuses and labor force surveys.
The ILO adjusts national labor force statistics when necessary to conform to international definitions. The growth of age/sex groups is provided to the ILO by the United Nations Population Division.

Data Table 8.2
Trends in Births, Life Expectancy, Fertility, and Age Structure, 1970 95

Source: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Demographic Indicators, 1950 2050 (The 1994 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1995).

The crude birth rate is derived by dividing the number of live births in a given year by the midyear population. This ratio is then multiplied by 1,000.

Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years that a newborn baby is expected to live if the age-specific mortality rates effective at the year of birth apply throughout his or her lifetime.

The total fertility rate i s an estimate of the number of children an average woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates remained constant during her reproductive years.

The percentage of population in specific age groups shows a country s age structure: 0 14, 15 65, and over 65 years. It is useful for inferring dependency, needs for education and employment, potential fertility, and other age-related factors.
For additional details on data collection, estimation, and projection methods, refer to the sources or to the Technical Notes for Data Table 8.1.

Data Table 8.3
Mortality and Nutrition, 1970 95

Sources: Crude death rate and infant mortality rate data: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Demographic Indicators 1950 2050 (The 1994 Revision), on diskette (U.N., New York, 1995). Under-5 mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, wasting, stunting, and per capita average calories available as a percentage of need: United Nations Children s Fund (UNICEF), State of the World s Children 1995 (UNICEF, New York, 1995).
Total expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP: The World Bank, World Development Report 1993 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1993).

The crude death rate is derived by dividing the number of deaths in a given year by the midyear population and multiplying by 1,000.

The infant mortality rate is the probability of dying by exact age 1, multiplied by 1,000. The United Nations Population Division provides this cohort measure.

The under-5 mortality rate is the probability of dying by exact age 5, multiplied by 1,000. UNICEF provides this cohort measure, which is derived from Child Mortality Since the 1960s A Database for Developing Countries (U.N., New York, 1992) and from infant mortality estimates provided by the United Nations Population Division. The mix is the result of a move from modeled estimates to estimates based on a periodically updated child mortality database. Nonetheless, this variable should not be compared to the United Nations Population Division s infant mortality rate, which is derived from population models where otherwise not available.

The maternal mortality rate is the number of deaths from pregnancy- or childbirth -related causes per 100,000 live births.
A maternal death is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy, including abortion. Most official maternal mortality rates are underestimated because of underreporting, incorrect classification, and unavailable cause of death information. In some countries, over 60 percent of women s deaths are registered without a specified cause. Maternal deaths are highest among women of ages 10 15 years, over 40 years, and in women with five or more children. Data are provided to UNICEF by WHO and refer to a single year between 1980 and 1990. Data for a few countries are outside the range of years indicated. The models used for deriving estimates of maternal mortality are relatively new. In addition, in many cases it is difficult to estimate the number of maternal deaths outside a hospital setting.

Wasting indicates current acute malnutrition and refers to the percentage of children under 5 whose weight-for-height is below minus 2 standard deviations from the median of the reference population, as defined by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).

Stunting, an indicator of chronic undernutrition, refers to the percentage of children under 5 whose height-for-age is below minus 2 standard deviations from the median of the reference population. NCHS, among others, has found that healthy children in one country differ little, as a group, in terms of weight and height from healthy children in other countries. WHO has accepted the NCHS weight-for-age and weight-for-height standards; however, a number of countries still use local reference populations, and the estimates provided may utilize a number of sources, not solely or primarily the WHO database. Children with low weight- for-age are at a high risk of mortality. Data on wasting and stunting, provided to UNICEF by WHO, refer to a single year between 1980 and 1993. Data for wasting and stunting are generally good if derived from recent national household surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys, but are not good if they are old or from local subnational studies.

The average calories available (as percentage of need) ar e calories from all food sources: domestic production, international trade, stock draw-downs, and foreign aid. The quantity of food available for human consumption, as estimated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is the amount that reaches the consumer. The calories actually consumed may be lower than the figures shown, depending on how much is lost during home storage, preparation, and cooking, and how much is fed to pets and domestic animals or discarded. Estimates of daily caloric requirements vary for individual countries according to the population s age distribution and estimated level of activity.

Total expenditure on health (as percentage of GDP) includes both public and private expenditures based on official exchange rates.
Expenditures are for all health-related activities including disease prevention, health promotion, rehabilitation, health care, family planning activities, nutrition activities, and food and emergency aid specifically for health. These estimates include spending on hospitals, health centers, and clinics.
Estimates for member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) were provided to the World Bank by OECD, while estimates for other countries were derived from national sources, data from the International Monetary Fund on governmental expenditures, special World Bank studies, and the Social Security Division of the International Labour Office.

Data Table 8.4
Education and Child Health, 1970 93

Sources: Adult literacy: United Nations (U.N.) Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Statistics on Adult Illiteracy: Preliminary Results of the 1994 Estimations and Projections (UNESCO Division of Statistics, Statistical Issues (STE-16), (October 1994, Paris), and personal communication.
Primary school enrollment: UNESCO, Trends and Projections of Enrollment by Level of Education, by Age, and by Sex, 1960 2025 (as assessed in 1993) (UNESCO, Division of Statistics (BPE- 94/WS.1), Paris, December 1993). Births attended by trained personnel, ORT use, low-birth-weight infants, and percentage of 1-year-olds fully immunized in 1991 against TB, DPT, polio, and measles: World Health Organization (WHO), The World Health Report 1995 (WHO, Geneva, 1995). Contraceptive prevalence: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), The State of World Population 1995 (UNFPA, New York, 1995).

Adult female and male literacy rates refer to the percentage of people over the age of 15 who can read and write. UNESCO recommends defining as illiterate a person who cannot with understanding both read and write a short, simple statement about his or her everyday life. This concept is widely accepted, but its interpretation and application vary. It does not include people who, though familiar with the basics of reading and writing, do not have the skills to function at a reasonable level in their own society. Actual definitions of adult literacy are not strictly comparable among countries. Literacy data for 1990 were, for the majority of countries, projected from past census figures, using 1994 United Nations Population Division estimates of age group size and country populations.

The gross primary school enrollment (as percentage of age group) data for females and males are provided by UNESCO. These data entail two reference years, 1960 and 1993. UNESCO defines the primary school enrollment ratio as the total enrollment, regardless of age, divided by the population of the age group that corresponds to this specific level of education. Primary education is level 1 of the International Standard Classification of Education, and its principal function is to provide the basic elements of education, such as those provided by elementary and primary schools. Intercountry comparisons should be made cautiously, because regulations for this level are extremely flexible. Even intracountry time comparisons should be made with care, as 1960 and 1993 estimates could be based on different assumptions.

The percentage of births attended by trained personnel includes all health personnel accepted by national authorities as part of the health system. The types of personnel included vary by country. Some countries include traditional birth attendants and midwives; others, only doctors.

ORT (oral rehydration therapy) use refers to administration of oral rehydration salts or appropriate household solutions to children (under 5 years old) to combat diarrheal diseases leading to dehydration or malnutrition.

The percentage of low-birth-weight infants refers to all babies weighing less than 2,500 grams at birth. WHO has adopted the standard that healthy babies, regardless of race, should weigh more than 2,500 grams at birth. These data are provided by UNICEF and WHO, and refer to a single year between 1980 and 1990.

Immunization data show the percentage of 1-year-olds fully immunized in 1993 against: TB (tuberculosis), DPT (diphtheria), pertussis (whooping cough), and tetanus, third dose, polio (oral poliovirus, third dose), and measles. Almost all country data refer to the immunization situation in 1993.

Contraceptive prevalence is the level of current contraceptive use of any method/modern methods among couples in which the woman is of childbearing age. Among the contraceptive methods used are:
sterilization, oral and injectable contraceptives, condoms, intrauterine devices, vaginal barriers (including diaphragms, cervical caps, and spermicides), and traditional methods (including rhythm, withdrawal, abstinence, douching, and folk remedies). Many of these surveys were national surveys or were conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey, Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, or Demographic and Health Survey. All data were collected after 1975, and 80 percent date from between 1987 and 1994.

SOURCES AND TECHNICAL NOTES FOR URBAN SECTION

Data Table A.1
Urban Indicators, 1975 2025

Sources: Urban population, percent urban, urban growth rates, and rural growth rates: United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Urban and Rural Areas, 1950 2025 (The 1994 Revision) , on diskette (U.N., New York, 1995); number of cities over 750,000:
United Nations (U.N.) U.N. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1994 Revision (Sales No. E.95.XIII.12, U.N., New York, 1995) Tables A1, A2, A6, A7, and A17; urban and rural dependency ratios:
United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Urban and Rural Areas by Sex and Age: The 1992 Revision (U.N., New York, 1993); and people in absolute poverty: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1994 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1994).

As part of its biennial revision of population projections, the Population Division of the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis prepares a number of data sets of global population estimates and projections. The most recent Population Prospects was revised in 1994. This table includes data from two data sets created as part of that 1994 revision and one data set from the 1992 revision. Population data in these data sets are estimates based on population censuses and surveys. See the Sources and Technical Notes for Data Table 8.1 for further information. All projections are for the medium-case scenario.

Urban population and percent urban refer to the midyear population of areas defined as urban in each of the countries of the world. These definitions vary slightly from country to country. Rural is defined as not urban. Urban growth rates and rural growth rates include the effects of urban-rural migration.

Number of cities greater than 750,000 population is the number of cities in each country (as defined by each country) that had a population of 750,000 or more in 1990. There are only 369 such cities in the world.

Urban dependency ratio is defined here as the ratio of the urban population under 15 years and over 65 years of age compared with the urban population between the ages of 15 and 65. The rural dependency ratio is defined similarly. For the purposes of this indicator, this latter age group is defined as the economically active population upon which younger and older people depend. In reality, some people under the age of 15 and over the age of 65 are economically active everywhere, and some people between the ages of 15 and 65 are economically dependent on others.

People in absolute poverty is derived from a host of country studies and may not be strictly comparable.

Data Table A.2
Access to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation, 1980 95

Sources: World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children s Fund (UNICEF), WHO/UNICEF Joint Water Supply and Sanitation Monitoring Programme , unpublished data (WHO, Geneva, 1995); WHO, The International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade: End of Decade Review (as at December 1990) (WHO, Geneva, August 1992); WHO, Global Strategy for Health for All: Monitoring 1988 1989: Detailed Analysis of Global Indicators (WHO, Geneva, May 1989); WHO, The International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade: Review of Mid-Decade Progress (as at December 1985) (WHO, Geneva, September 1987); WHO, The International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade: Review of National Progress (as at December 1983) ; WHO, The International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade: Review of National Baseline Data: December 1980 (WHO, Geneva, 1984); and WHO, unpublished data (WHO, Geneva, July 1991).

WHO collected data on drinking water and sanitation from national governments in 1980, 1983, 1985, 1988, and 1990 using questionnaires completed by public health officials, WHO experts, and resident representatives of the United Nations Development Programme, and most recently collected these data for 1994 in support of a monitoring system for WHO/UNICEF s Child Summit.
These data are for a variety of developing countries and often include information on the percent of the urban population served by specific sources of water or specific sanitation systems.
Urban and rural populations were defined by each national government and might not be strictly comparable.

WHO defines reasonable access to safe drinking water in an urban area as access to piped water or a public standpipe within 200 meters of a dwelling or housing unit. In rural areas, reasonable access implies that a family member need not spend a disproportionate part of the day fetching water. Safe drinking water includes treated surface water and untreated water from protected springs, boreholes, and sanitary wells.
Definitions of safe water and appropriate access to sanitation and health services vary depending upon location and condition of local resources.

Urban areas with access to sanitation services are defined as urban populations served by connections to public sewers or household systems such as pit privies, pour-flush latrines, septic tanks, communal toilets, and other such facilities. Rural populations with access were defined as those with adequate disposal such as pit privies, pour-flush latrines, and so forth.
Application of these definitions may vary, and comparisons can therefore be misleading.

Data Table A.3
Air Pollution in Selected Cities, 1989 94

Source: World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations Environment Programme, and the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS)/AIR Monitoring Project, unpublished data (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1995).

These data should be used with care. Because different methods and procedures may have been used in each country, the best comparative data may be time trends within a country. GEMS/AIR sponsors a network of air pollution monitoring sites in more than 50 cities worldwide. These data are based on reports from those sites of observations made between 1989 and 1994 (exact years vary by city). Air quality in selected cities is given for the number of site years (number of sites multiplied by the number of years of operation in recent years) for suspended particulate matter , smoke , and sulfur dioxide (SO2 ), and lead . These data are presented as the annual mean for each pollutant during the years of observation.

The health effects of suspended particulate matter (SPM) are in part dependent on the chemical makeup and biological activity of the particles. Heavy metal particles or hydrocarbons condensed onto dust particles can be especially toxic. There are two commonly used methods to measure SPM: high-volume gravimetric sampling and smoke shade methods. Gravimetric sampling determines the mass of particulates in a given volume of air. Smoke shade methods relate the reflectance of a stain left on filter paper that has had ambient air drawn through it to the concentration of particulates in the air. Smoke shade data cannot be used interchangeably with gravimetrically determined mass measurements because the smoke shade measurement is predominantly an indication of dark material in the air, which may not be proportional to the total weight of suspended matter. High-volume data may be twice as large as concurrent smoke shade results.
This table includes both gravimetrically determined suspended particulate matter measurements and smoke shade measurements. The WHO recommends exposures of less than 60 to 90 micrograms per cubic meter per day for total suspended particles and 40 to 60 micrograms per day for smoke. Many cities exceed the WHO guidelines on an average basis. SPM arises from numerous anthropogenic and natural sources. Among the anthropogenic sources are combustion, industrial and agricultural practices, and the formation of sulfates from SO2 emissions.

WHO recommends that SO2 exposures should not exceed an average of 40 to 60 micrograms per cubic meter over the course of a year.
Many cities in Asia far exceed this level on an average basis.
This is of particular concern for young children and people at risk of respiratory illness. Exposure, along with acute respiratory illness, could lead to chronic respiratory illness later in life. SO2 is created by both natural and anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic sources include fossil fuel combustion and industrial activities. High levels of SO2 and SPM may cause respiratory problems among adults and children and may also result in illness in the lower respiratory tract, primarily in children. In the atmosphere, SO2 oxidizes and, with moisture, becomes sulfuric acid. This acid precipitation, made more acidic by the simultaneous addition of nitric acid, can have effects far distant from its source and has been implicated in declines in forests in North America and Europe, negative effects on soils and crops, and the deterioration of architectural treasures.

Lead emissions are almost all anthropogenic. Alkyl lead, an antiknock additive to ordinary gasoline, accounts for 60 percent of global emissions and up to 90 percent in individual countries.
Children are especially vulnerable to lead poisoning, which affects heme biosynthesis and the nervous system. The WHO guidelines call for annual average concentrations of less than 0.5 to 0.1 micrograms per cubic meter.

Data Table A.4
India: City Indicators, 1993

Source: Society for Development Studies (SDS) India: City Indicators Programme (Society for Development Studies, New Delhi, India, January 1996).

The India City Indicators Programme of the Society for Development Studies (SDS) is a collaborative effort between the government of India, various state governments, the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat), and the United States Agency for International Development to develop inputs to India s national report for the upcoming United Nations Habitat II Conference. Assembling these indicators, and harmonizing them, across cities was no small accomplishment. The 11 cities studied were selected to represent the variety of urban processes found within India. In most cases, the data collection and statistical infrastructure necessary to measure these indicators are nonexistent. In these cases, SDS used other data to estimate these indicators.

Population data, including growth rates, are derived from the Census of India, and the estimates of state census offices, projected, where necessary, to estimate city populations. It is not always clear whether other indicators collected relate to the exact city boundaries used to estimate population.

Household data including the average household size , the percent of female headed households, and floor area per person are estimated from both Census of India data and the quinquiennial National Sample Survey also carried out by the government of India, and if necessary from other data (see Source for further information).

Household income distribution was estimated from survey data obtained from state parastatals for megacities and quick surveys for smaller cities. The number of households below poverty line was estimated from the number of applications for assistance received by cities. There is a strong possibility of undercounting.

Data on household connections were obtained from the state parastatal or local government providing water, sewer, telephone, and electrical connections. Illegal connections are not included but are believed significant.

Access to potable water includes other sources than household connections.

Estimates of the percent engaged in informal employment were made based upon projected total employment and growth in the formal sector as well as information from local, state, and national agencies. Crime rate data were obtained from local police departments and are only as complete as the reporting allows.
Data on the number of automobiles were derived from studies at research centers as well as new estimates. Data on hospital beds are part of a good public health infrastructure database held by governmental authorities, but private hospitals are poorly represented. Classroom size is an essential parameter derived from local government information on enrollment. Infant mortality is derived from death registrations and is believed to be strongly understated. Estimates of annual per capita solid waste emissions and solid waste collected were obtained from local government authorities.